The global drive toward electrification and the explosive growth of the energy storage industry are elevating lithium resources to a core strategic position. Over the next decade, the lithium market will remain in a sustained supply shortage. Latin America, home to over 60% of the world’s lithium reserves, holds the key to resolving the supply crunch, yet it also faces severe challenges stemming from policy uncertainties and investment bottlenecks.
The explosive growth on the demand side and rigid constraints on the supply side have combined to trigger a long-term shortage of lithium resources. Surging installations of power batteries and a booming construction wave of energy storage power stations have directly driven exponential growth in lithium demand. Meanwhile, the supply side is plagued by constant disruptions: restrictions on the export of lithium concentrates from Zimbabwe, the revocation of some mining rights in Jiangxi, China, and production cuts by Australia’s IGO, all contributing to a widening short-term supply gap. Investment bank Canaccord Genuity forecasts that the global lithium market will remain in a sustained shortage from 2026 to 2035, with insufficient long-term investment in new production capacity standing as the core bottleneck constraining supply.
As the heartland of global lithium resources, the Lithium Triangle of Latin America—Chile, Argentina and Bolivia—dominates the global supply landscape, with the three countries holding more than 60% of the world’s total lithium reserves. According to BNamericas data, Latin America currently has 27 new lithium mining, expansion and technical upgrading projects with a total investment of 15.9 billion US dollars, scheduled for concentrated commissioning between 2026 and 2030 to fill the global supply gap. Argentina leads the region with 19 projects attracting investment of 12.77 billion US dollars. In Chile, driven by its national lithium strategy, private capital participation has slowed down, while capacity expansions by enterprises such as SQM and Albemarle are advancing steadily. Bolivia’s Uyuni Salt Lake DLE project, Peru’s Falchani project, and three key projects in Brazil are all slated for commissioning from 2028 to 2030, set to deliver substantial new production capacity.
Nevertheless, policy uncertainties have become the biggest obstacle to the release of lithium production capacity in Latin America. To seize the initiative in controlling strategic resources, regional countries have strengthened state oversight, featuring lengthy approval procedures and frequent policy adjustments. This has led to strong caution among investors and slow progress of projects. Chile has pushed forward lithium nationalization policies, requiring a minimum state holding of 35% in new projects, which has directly slowed the pace of private capital participation. As for Argentina, although it has introduced tax incentives to attract foreign investment, its policy stability remains to be tested. Bolivia adheres to the state-led development of lithium resources with a low degree of marketization. Derek Chubb, mining director at ERM, pointed out plainly that clear and stable policy rules are a prerequisite for capacity expansion. Frequent regulatory changes will only hinder the recovery of global lithium supply.
The core contradiction in the current lithium market lies not in insufficient resource reserves, but in a severe shortage of production capacity that can be put into operation on schedule. Lithium projects across Latin America are generally plagued by delayed approvals and extended construction cycles, with most commissioning schedules falling behind expectations, further tightening global supply.
BICHEM holds that the trend of lithium prices being prone to rise yet resistant to decline has become an industry consensus. The lingering supply gap coupled with project commissioning delays will continue to underpin a medium-term uptrend in lithium prices. For industry practitioners and investors, accelerating the steady implementation and commissioning of projects amid the accelerated diversification of the global industrial chain has become the key to seizing opportunities from rising lithium prices. In this context, BICHEM is ready to leverage its mature modular lithium extraction technology to help enterprises capture opportunities amid the current lithium price upcycle. Aligned with Latin America’s orientation toward sustainable development, we provide solid technical support for the large-scale and green development of enterprise projects.
